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‘GOOD TIMES ARE OVER’: HOW THE EU IS PREPARING FOR POSSIBLE WAR WITH RUSSIA

Europe is preparing for possible war with Russia, without the US

Poland is planning to train every adult male for war, Norway is restoring old military bunkers, and Germany has unlocked billions for a historic boost to defence spending.

As fears grow about the reliability of the United States as an ally, countries across the EU are scrambling to prepare for a possible war with Russia.

Danish and German intelligence have warned that NATO should brace for a potential attack in as little as five years.

Many countries are already telling citizens to prepare survival kits in case of a major crisis.

But the increased Russia threat was brewing long before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump's return to the White House, according to analysts.

Now, Europe is playing catch-up.

Trump support uncertain

Since the end of World War II, Europe has been guaranteed US security.

And for the 31 other member states under the NATO alliance, that meant the US would spring into action if they came under attack.

But President Donald Trump has made it clear that the continent can no longer take US military support for granted.

He has been growing increasingly sympathetic to Russia, while warning the EU must look after its own security in the future.

Now, the EU has had no choice but to to wean itself off its US dependence.

Donald Trump has talked up his relationship with Vladimir Putin, saying they "got along great" during his first term in the White House. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)

Luigi Scazzieri, assistant director at the Centre for European Reform, said the EU had been neglecting the equipment, stockpiles and readiness efforts needed for high-intensity conflict.

"It proved more convenient to rely on the US," he wrote in an EU defence brief.

"The need for Europeans to urgently strengthen their defences is clearer than ever."

Race to rearm Europe

Europe is taking the security shift seriously.

Norway is bringing back a requirement for all new buildings over a certain size to include bomb shelters, in a practice halted in 1998.

And Cold War military bunkers, sitting inside a mountain, that have been deactivated for 40 years are reportedly being restored.

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia last month announced they were withdrawing from the Ottawa convention banning anti-personnel landmines.

The countries, which all border Russia, said they were planning to start stockpiling and using landmines again, arguing it was "paramount" to give their troops "flexibility and freedom of choice" to defend NATO's eastern flank.

Poland, Lithuania and Latvia also share borders with Moscow's ally Belarus.

Poland, which spent almost two centuries as a colony of Moscow, is preparing citizens for combat.

The country of 38 million people has started work to ensure all men undergo military training, with the aim to boost its army to 500,000 troops.

Stephan Fruehling from the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre said the size of European armies would be an issue if Russia does attack.

"Europe just doesn't have the forces that you need to hold front lines," he told the ABC.

"The Russians have lost an awful lot of equipment in Ukraine … but they do have more than a million people in their army.

"Quantity is a quality of its own."

A mine danger sign is seen near a flooded area after the Nova Kakhovka dam breached.

A mine danger sign is seen near a flooded area in the Kherson region amid Russia's attack on Ukraine. (Reuters: Viktoriia Lakezina)

Russia's army has about 1.5 million active troops.

This week, President Vladimir Putin ordered a fresh conscription drive to recruit 160,000 more men.

The defence ministry said it was "in no way connected with the special military operation in Ukraine".

In recent years, NATO has been encouraging countries to build up personnel numbers.

Some countries — particularly in Scandinavia and the Baltics — have reintroduced military conscription in recent years, largely because of the Russian threat.

Threat not taken lightly

Jakub Janda from the Centre for Security Policy in Prague, said the push to rearm Europe was warranted.

"European countries are scared by the scope of Russian preparations for all-out continental war with Europe in upcoming years," he told the ABC.

"If there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, time will start running out as Russia will be preparing for its campaign against NATO on a full scale."

He said Russia had been getting support from countries such as China to scale up its defence industry, and was "clearly preparing for a major conquest in European NATO territories".

Dozens of Russian reservists in khaki military uniform, marching across snow toward a banner of Vladimir Putin.

Russia is boosting recruitment of young men as it seeks to expand its number of active troops. (Reuters: Alexey Malgavko)

The Danish Defense Intelligence Service updated its threat assessment earlier this year, warning Russia could wage a war in Europe within five years.

"Russia's capacity to produce military equipment has increased tremendously," Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told local media in February.

"It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO's solidarity."

Similar intelligence has come out of Germany.

NATO's Article 5 mutual defence clause states that an armed attack against one or more of its members shall be considered an attack against all members.

The European Commission is encouraging member states to develop 72-hour survival kits for citizens in case of emergencies, including the possibility of armed aggression against EU countries.

Countries such as Sweden and Finland already have guides available to citizens on how to respond if they come under attack.

Defence spending boom

Europe is also dramatically stepping up defence spending.

NATO's guideline for defence spending remained at 2 per cent of GDP last year, a target set in 2014.

But Mr Trump has urged NATO members to increase that to 5 per cent.

In 2024, he said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO countries that didn't pay.

NATO chief Mark Rutte said he was hopeful the US would still come to the alliance's aid if it came under attack, but was pushing members to "step up and play their full part".

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte delivers a statement,

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is pushing for members to increase defence spending.  (AP: Virginia Mayo)

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended a NATO meeting in Brussels on Thursday to reassure the alliance it had the Trump administration's support.

He said any talk of the US leaving NATO was "hysteria and hyperbole", but he reiterated that members must agree to significantly ramp up their spending targets for defence.

Poland has come the closest to meeting US demands, increasing defence spending to 4.7 per cent of GDP.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were moving towards a 5 per cent target in the coming years.

Sweden and France are aiming to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP over the coming years, while Finland will increase its spending to 3 per cent by 2029.

NATO will debate officially raising its target at its June summit, which Mr Rutte has said would likely be "north of 3 per cent".

Nuclear deterrence

Professor Fruehling said that even before Trump 2.0, it was becoming evident that Europe needed to address Russia's growing threat.

But Western Europe was only now taking the necessary action.

Europe doesn't know if it can rely on America's nuclear weapons for protection.

Even after the full-scale invasion [of Ukraine], it took a number of years for it to sink in that the good times were over in Western Europe," he said.

"I think people were kind of wilfully ignorant, or closing their eyes to what Russia was becoming."

Last month, Germany passed a major defence and infrastructure spending plan potentially worth up to 1 trillion euros, which contains $AUD5 billion of support for Ukraine.

It represented a radical departure for a country traditionally reluctant to take on large amounts of debt or to spend heavily on the military.

Flames shoot from beneath a ballistic missile launched from an air field during military drills.

Russia is estimated to have thousands of tactical nuclear weapons. (AP: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service)

The defence splurge is set to favour European companies, with the EU aiming to move away from heavy reliance on US weapons.

But, one area where that may prove difficult is nuclear capabilities.

NATO countries have been assured that they would be protected by America's nuclear umbrella, which Mr Rutte described as "the ultimate guarantor of our security" that could not be replaced.

European nations are discussing how to tackle the threat of a nuclear attack without US assistance.

Countries are turning to France and the United Kingdom, the only two European nations with nuclear arsenals of their own, for a possible way forward.

But their nuclear arsenal combined hardly compares to Russia and the US.

Where Australia fits in

EU nations are being encouraged to boost security ties with NATO allies that are not members of the EU, including Australia.

Albanese 'open' to Australian troops joining Ukrainian peacekeeping coalition.

Professor Freuhling said that Australia and the EU already had defence industrial links.

And it would benefit Australia to take further steps to demonstrate it was strategically aligned with Europe and Canada.

"If the Trump administration continues the way that that is going, we're going to need all the friends we can get,” he said.

"The rearmed Europe is going to be a pretty important factor … we probably don't want them to forget that we're still here as well."

He added that it would "make sense" for Australia to contribute peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has joined talks with the so-called "coalition of the willing", to discuss potentially putting troops on the ground to protect Ukraine.

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron said a number of countries had agreed to send a "reassurance force" to Ukraine if a peace deal is secured between Moscow and Kyiv.

Mr Albanese did not give a conclusive response as to whether Australia would be part of the force, but he did not dismiss it.

"We are prepared to give consideration to being a part of the actions of democratic countries," he told reporters.

"The struggle of President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people isn't just a struggle for their national sovereignty, it is a struggle for the international rule of law … And Australia has always stood up for what's right on the international stage."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/how-europe-nato-countries-are-preparing-for-war-with-russia/105116526